Global Instability, World War, What Comes Next in 2016
In gazing the 2016 State of the Union Speech and legacy optimism speech through Barack Obama, I needed to suppose what sort of Kool-Aid is that this gentleman consuming? There is instability all over the place. The US would possibly really well have entered a recession within the 4th quarter of 2015, and if no longer it sort of feels to be headed there within the first quarter of 2016. We see China, which has painted itself into an financial nook is now experiencing the effects in their many mismanagement errors through the years. Oil costs are crashing, some now expect they might pass to $16-20 in line with barrel ahead of they get well – international locations will economically implode at endured low oil costs (as of writing this newsletter lately, crude oil dipped underneath $30 in line with barrel – 2003 costs).
Say good-bye to the BRICS, they’re getting hit with a ton of them; Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa – such a lot for his or her financial buying and selling block energy play, and simply in time for the Olympic Games in Rio, ouch. OPEC isn’t reducing oil manufacturing, Iran is coming on-line to promote its oil, and all the ones little international locations that owe their country’s wealth to grease are about to economically implode. And to the larger oil manufacturers Russia, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Oman, Qatar, Brazil, Venezuela, and many others. – can they actually cling out with such low costs? If so, how lengthy – smartly perhaps some will, however maximum can’t. Are we in a position to witness every other Arab Spring?
China is slowing down – they have stockpiled oil, so they aren’t going to shop for so much. The US is generating extra oil than ever, however who’s purchasing? Will we see Oil Companies submitting chapter, entire international locations defaulting on money owed, and duties promised to their voters? Trust me, when a central authority makes guarantees and reneges, there’s hell to pay with civil unrest. As if there are not sufficient conflicts happening already on planet Earth – that is beginning to seem like a actually sizzling day, with a large number of dry brush, and it would not take greater than a unmarried dangerous actor (arsonist) to purpose a wildfire, the likes we have not noticed in many years.
2016 goes to be a take a look at for calmer heads, international relations, strategic pondering and excellent management. Meanwhile, america is gazing an enormous inventory marketplace correction for our January Barometer – the type of foreshadowing shall we do with out at this time. Folks, optimism and great speeches don’t seem to be going to get us via 2016 – it’ll take a take a look at of power of personality, will, and a truth test to do this. Please believe all this.